niall_shapero: Smirking Fox face... (SmirkingFox)
[personal profile] niall_shapero
Before today's events in Nevada, the Republicans were planning on scheduling a vote on a bill to repeal the health care law passed last year. While the Republicans have enough votes in the House to pass such a bill (242 representatives are Republican, 193 are Democrat) they do not have enough votes to pass such a repeal bill in the Senate (the Republicans hold 47 Senate seats, and the Democrats hold 53 seats, counting independents who caucus with the Democrats). But even if the Republicans could, by some strange twist of fate, get their bill passed in the Senate as well, there is no chance of the repeal becoming law, since Obama can be expected to veto any such bill, they must be prepared to override the veto.

From: http://www.senate.gov/reference/glossary_term/override_of_a_veto.htm
override of a veto - The process by which each chamber of Congress votes on a bill vetoed by the President. To pass a bill over the President's objections requires a two-thirds vote in each Chamber. Historically, Congress has overridden fewer than ten percent of all presidential vetoes.

The Republicans would need 290 votes in the House and 67 votes in the Senate to override a Presidential veto, and that would require that the Republicans pick up some 48 Democrat votes in the House and 20 Democrat votes in the Senate -- assuming that every single Republican voted to override a Presidential veto.

This is NOT going to happen. What has happened is that, by refusing to pass a budget, and having a continuing resolution, the funding remains constant from the previous year's budget - in which there WAS no funding for the health care law. So no funding for the law this time. Of course, since the non-partisan CBO (Congressional Budget Office) estimated that the health care law would reduce the deficit, defunding it actually ends up costing the American taxpayer more than funding it would, long term (long term starting the first year).

So don't look for the the Republicans actually repealing the Health Care Law - just expect them to not fund any of its provisions, and to make sure that there's no funding for any government organization intended to regulate the health care industry, or to enforce any provisions of the law. In this fashion, a law may be left on the books, but since no one is paying for it, nothing will be done, and we'll be left with something worse than status quo ante.
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